Strategic Plan Forecast for Higher Education Institutions 2025–26 to 2027–28

2. The Strategic Plan Forecast (SPF) is an established part of SFC’s financial health monitoring framework.
3. The return builds on financial information already provided by universities, including the Quarter 1 Financial Update (Q1FU), and will enable SFC to provide advice on the financial health of the university sector to both the Scottish and UK Governments.

4. There are three changes to our information request for the SPF return. These changes were implemented in the Quarter One Financial Update (Q1FU) return and will be included in the SPF and all future financial returns.

International Student Data

5. Once again, the template requires you to provide information on the number of international students from each country studying at your university split into undergraduate and postgraduate. It also requires data on transnational education and global online activity.
6. Along with an update on the current Academic Year, we are asking universities to provide the actual figures for 2024-25, including for the top five countries.
7. Commentary is required on assumptions, any caveats on the information provided and international strategy for future years including estimates of future markets and associated risks.

Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA)

8. As with the Q1FU return, we have included a sheet entitled ‘EBITDA’. This includes a calculation that follows the definition provided by the British Universities Finance Directors Group (BUFDG).^[1]
9. We have linked most of the cells in the EBITDA calculation sheet to the other sheets in the return. Only two require manual completion.
10. SFC appreciates that some universities have their own method of calculation, but for the purpose of SFC financial returns, please adhere to the calculation specified in the EBITDA sheet as this will allow for better comparison across the sector.
11. Included in the ‘Summary’ sheet is an additional indicator providing EBITDA as a percentage of total income.

SOCIE Additional Information

12. In line with the Q1FU return, a new sheet labelled ‘SOCIE Additional Information’ has been inserted. This asks universities to provide:
    • A breakdown of their assumed savings in three categories: staff, non-staff and undefined. Please provide brief commentary on savings, particularly if your university is forecasting undefined savings.
    • Information on any budget contingencies.
    • Exceptional one-off information and expenditure events to allow for flexibility in the Adjusted Operating Position (AOP).

^[1] BUFDG – EBITDA for HE [.docx]

13. Universities must complete both the actual figures for 2024-25 and forecast figures for the following three years.
14. Guidance for completion of the return can be found in Annex A A blank copy of the spreadsheet is published along with this Call for Information on our website.
15. Please note that the guidance in Annex A requests a commentary on the financial forecasts which should cover the context in which the forecasts have been prepared. The commentary should also capture your additional scenario planning, working through a range of assumptions and options that help you and us understand the trade-offs involved, and choices you could make, to reach an optimal position for your university. Please provide copies of recent papers presented to your university’s Governing Body. These should capture the scenario planning undertaken along with mitigating actions and key milestones in the decision-making process for addressing adverse variances.
16. Please enter explanations for significant variances on the spreadsheet. As with previous forecast returns, we may come back to universities with queries and requests for further details following our analysis of the forecast information.
17. If any sections of the return are incomplete, insufficiently detailed, or errors are identified, we will contact universities to provide an updated return. For example, if the breakdown of cash and cash equivalents on the ‘BS Additional Info’ tab doesn’t match the figure per the balance sheet, universities will be asked to provide update information.

18. Please provide the following information:
    • An electronic copy of the return in Excel format and a financial commentary.
    • Recent papers presented to your Governing Body, which should include details of any additional planning scenarios that have been considered by the university’s Governing Body.
    • If the schedule of Governing Body meetings makes it difficult to achieve this deadline, please provide a draft return, the date of the Governing Body meeting and the proposed date for the return submission.

19. It is important that returns are submitted to SFC by the deadline to allow SFC to monitor universities’ financial health and report to the SFC Finance Committee in the required timescales.

20. Electronic copies of the return and supporting documents should be sent to: isg‑returns@sfc.ac.uk by 30 June 2026.

22. The SPF takes the form of an excel spreadsheet which has fourteen sheets. A copy of the spreadsheet is published on our website along with this Call for Information.
23. Thirteen of the sheets require input by the university. We suggest the order of completion is:
    1. ‘Income’.
    2. ‘Expenditure’.
    3. ‘SoCIE’.
    4. ‘Cashflow’.
    5. ‘Balance Sheet’ and ‘BS Additional info’ (these two sheets should be completed together, as various inputs on each drive figures on the other).
    6. ‘International student data’.
    7. ‘Assumptions’.
    8. ‘Pension assumptions’.
    9. ‘Borrowing covenants’.
    10. ‘Socie Additional Info’.
    11. ‘EBITDA’.
    12. ‘Declaration’.

Assumptions

24. To enable forecasts for all HEIs to be viewed on a consistent basis, SFC grant for 2026-27 should be in accordance with final funding allocations confirmed on 3 June 2026 – University Final Funding Allocations 2026-27. For this financial return, universities should assume flat cash funding for 2027-28. However, you should note that this is a planning assumption and no decision has been made concerning funding beyond 31 July 2027.
25. Assumptions for international fee income should take account of local circumstances and be based on the latest available information regarding recruitment levels. As well as this ‘realistic’ scenario, universities should also present the financial impact of any alternative scenario in the commentary accompanying the forecasts. Assumptions underlying all scenarios, along with potential mitigating actions and key milestones in the decision-making process for addressing adverse variances, should also be clearly set out in the financial commentary.

Input of financial forecast figures and comparatives

26. In the ‘Assumptions’ sheet you are required to enter your assumptions for specific areas of income and expenditure such as tuition fees and staff costs.
27. The sheets in the spreadsheet contain yellow highlighted boxes for the input of the actual and forecast figures.
28. Please note that only whole numbers should be input into the return. Please do not link the spreadsheet to another document or change the formatting in the spreadsheet.
29. Please enter explanations for any significant variances where appropriate.

Scottish Funding Council grants

30. SFC grants should be analysed in accordance with the headings in the final funding allocations confirmed on 3 June 2026 – University Final Funding Allocations AY 2026-27. The grants for small specialist institutions, widening access and retention funds and accelerated provision should be shown as General fund teaching.

Sheets not requiring completion

31. The Summary sheet does not require completion. This summarises various key figures from the spreadsheet and is calculated automatically.