Commission on Widening Access 2030 target

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About what follows

This Scottish Funding Council (SFC) Insight Briefing takes a closer look at progress towards the Commission on Widening Access 2030 target. The target is that, by then, students from the 20% most deprived areas in Scotland will represent 20% of Scottish entrants to full-time first degree courses at university. The shorthand for this group is SIMD20. The target is to be met via a series of milestones, including a 2026 milestone of 18%.

The Briefing explains and quantifies two pipelines for making progress. It examines what colleges and universities have achieved, and it looks at what this has meant for students. It concludes by describing the challenges in meeting the target.

If you’re new to the issue

The Commission on Widening Access (CoWA) was set up by the Scottish Government to advise on its ambition that a child born in one of Scotland’s most deprived communities would, by the time they leave school, have the same chance of entering university as a child born in one of the country’s least deprived communities.

The Commission’s work concluded in 2016 with the publication of A Blueprint for Fairness which set the 2030 target and interim milestones. The Commission acknowledged the task would be difficult. It said the problems that led to inequality of access to higher education are “rooted in family homes and local communities, in the complex mix of factors that shape aspiration and in the cultural differences between socioeconomic groups.”

It added that these issues were made worse by the unfairness evident at the time in the admissions and selection processes of universities, in the school attainment gap and in the efficiency of transitions between education sectors.

The pipelines

The two most significant pipelines for universities’ ability to meet the CoWA target are school leavers and college leavers.

In 2021-22, 38% of university entrants from SIMD20 areas came straight from school. According to the Office for National Statistics’ population forecasts, the SIMD20 18-year-old population will grow by around 23% from 2021 by 2026.

Given two assumptions – that 27% of SIMD20 school leavers achieve at least three Highers (the 2021-22 level), and universities are able to enrol similar proportions of the SIMD20 18-year-old population as they have done in recent years – this pipeline could have enabled the achievement of the 18% milestone point by 2026.

The latest (2022-23) figures for school qualifications show, however, that the 27% attainment level has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels of 25% which will make this growth (despite the benefits of a population boost) difficult.

Accounting for 46% of SIMD20 university entrants, the college pipeline is universities’ main contributor to the CoWA target. In recent years universities have significantly increased their intake from this channel. This is particularly notable, as the number of enrolments for Higher National level qualifications has been decreasing. However, on its own, this volume would need to grow consistently by 5% per year to meet both the 18% milestone and the final 20% target; meaning the 2030 target would require both pipelines to grow.

Successes on three fronts

Colleges

Although achieving the target may appear challenging, there have been a number of successes to celebrate.

A 2016 report from the Sutton Trust found that over the previous decade 90% of all the growth in entry into Scottish higher education by disadvantaged students had been through sub-degree courses in colleges.

Furthermore, in 2021-22, 32% of people completing a college HNC/HND qualification went on to become university SIMD20 entrants.

Both these achievements demonstrate the success of the college route to achieving the widening access targets.

Universities

Between 2015-16 and 2021-2022, universities significantly increased their conversion rate of 18 year olds from SIMD20 areas from 11% to 21%.

A major factor in this success has been the role of contextualised admissions. All Scottish universities (with the exception of the Open University in Scotland which has an open admissions policy) now use a form of contextual admissions. These extend to a wide range of indicators including widening access programmes, family indicators, and protected characteristics.

Students

There is also cause for celebration for student outcomes. One of the most encouraging widening access achievements since A Blueprint for Fairness is that degree awards for SIMD20 students have improved substantially.

The proportion of SIMD20 full-time students achieving a 1st class or 2.1 honours degree has risen from 66% to 75% with particular growth for those achieving a 1st .

SIMD20 students achieving a 1st or 2.1 hons degree

The road to 2030

There is evidence to suggest that the 2026 18% milestone is feasible if school attainment can return to 2021-22 levels or higher. However, the onward journey to 20% will be extremely challenging.

CoWA’s observation that inequality of access to higher education is rooted in homes and communities, in aspirations and in culture remains valid.

The cost-of-living crisis, the UK-wide rise in material deprivation since 2020, and the long-term effects of the pandemic on children and young people have made these roots more deeply embedded than they were in 2016.

Within the system there has been a reduction in the uptake of full-time higher education college courses and, despite an overall increase in demand for university places for 2024-25, there has been a trend of falling demand for university places in recent years beyond the 18-year-old population. Earlier in this paper we also discussed the limitations of the two main pipelines.

These factors combine to create a challenging environment for institutions striving towards the 2030 target. The way ahead is uncertain and contains obstacles beyond the control of SFC, colleges and universities.

In summary, we can be encouraged and motivated by many elements of progress to date. We can also, with reason, see the way to the interim 2026 milestone. Beyond that lies a more difficult road.

Despite all the challenges, working towards the CoWA target continues to represent progression towards tackling child poverty, creating a more equal society and growing the economy.

Further reading

SFC publishes an annual Report on Widening Access.